As if to prove that most estimates this far out are generally meaningless, Futuresource Consulting has their own prediction regarding the console market in 2018. It says that the PS4 will have sold 36 million units by the year 2018, whereas the Xbox One will have only sold 30 million units. A far cry from the 55-30% split DFC said the market would be.
Though Futuresource Consulting’s numbers are worldwide their explanations still contradict DFC’s numbers. They say Sony will “maintain its strong lead in core territories of Japan and continental Europe.” They also say that “due to its lower price point and positive PR within the gaming community, the PS4 will also reduce Xbox’s lead in the key Microsoft territories of the USA and the UK when compared with previous generations.”
What is interesting is that Futuresource goes further to predict that because of competition through mobile devices and other propositions from the likes of Apple and Google, the sales and by extension install bases for this generation of consoles is going to be 20% lower. Though retail sales will grow by $430 million despite a big shift to digital downloads. In addition, because of market convergence, this could be the last generation of dedicated gaming consoles.